I created a video on my Youtube channel on Friday, making the claim that I was going to be a millionaire by Monday.
Then, I created an account on Manifest, and added a bunch of predictions about my channel. The one that got traction: that my video would get 1,000,000 views by Monday.
Now let's compare the results:
My channel is having its best performing video so early, and look at the title, watch the video, etc. There's no reason that this video will get views.
Hell, look at the comments:
Even spun off a new market. Now imagine this engagement every video. That's why I'm doing what I'm doing, and why Noah will pay me $1M for my tech. But I'll let you also have it for $1. But only if this video hits 1M views before the deadline. So I need you to buy this, pay the $1, and share the blog and the story.
It's also exactly why Manifest will eventually pay me to sponsor my channel. The price is gonna go up, but it will be worth it.
I don't need to prove anything to anyone. When they see the value I can create, there's no question. I just want people to listen to me because I spent a lot of time and energy learning how to make my ideas legible.
Also, this would be the funniest thing ever, because when I launched my initial idea 5 years ago, I tried to explain it to my dad, because he was the hardest critic I had. And he thought my idea was that I wanted everyone online to pay me $1, because that's how he explained it to someone else.
Ideas change when they pass from person to person, and that's what I've been focused on. It's at the core of my Youtube Channel, Idea Supply Chain. I obsess over where ideas come from and what makes them valuable.
And the answer is people. It's always been people. And now it's time to see if people can beat the algorithm. Because that's the perfect way to introduce my first series of videos: Prediction Markets.
I'm planning out a series of videos around Prediction Markets as the first module we'll be studying.
Video 1: What are Prediction Markets?
Video 2: What makes Prediction Markets valuable?
Video 3: Superstar interview (Robin Hanson if I didn't scare him off)
Video 4: Recap and assignment.
So let's see what happens, shall we? Can we make the reality we want to see human?
Or are we slaves to the algorithm like Silicon Valley wants us to think we are?
Are you going to bet on the algorithm?
Or will you put a $1 bet on humans?
I know where my money is.
Do you?
